Lisbon Tourism Thermometer No. 1: the airport has stalled, hotels feel it and Easter comes early
Fortnightly tourism forecast · No. 1 · October 2026 · Lisbon, Cascais, Sintra and Setúbal. This edition was sent to subscribers from 27 October 2026. Subscribe for free to get it the day it comes out (the newsletter is sent in Portuguese).
Lisbon is growing little in 2026: the airport has no room for more flights and its hotels were the only ones in the country to lose occupancy, rate and RevPAR in summer. Before Christmas, Web Summit brings a peak in November, but there are fewer bookings and an easyJet strike is scheduled for 19 to 23 December. In spring, Easter on 28 March brings the season forward and cruises are at record highs.
The temperature: the next 9 months in the Lisbon region
Scale from 0 (cold) to 100 (hot).
69° · MILD Oct–Dec 2026 · next 3 months
Mild. October and Web Summit (9 to 12 November) hold up the quarter, but hoteliers have fewer bookings than in 2025, flights are pricier and an easyJet strike is scheduled for the week before Christmas.
How we got here: historical base 72 · regional growth +1 · Web Summit +1 · fewer bookings and easyJet strike −2 · no airport growth −1 · pricier flights −2 = 69°
61° · MILD Jan–Mar 2027 · 3 to 6 months
January and February are the weakest months of the year. March warms up with Holy Week (21 to 28 March). The airport still has no room to grow and British travellers are more cautious.
How we got here: historical base 61 · regional growth +1 · Easter in March +3 · no airport growth −1 · pricier flights −2 · British confidence −1 = 61°
80° · HOT Apr–Jun 2027 · 6 to 9 months
Hot. A strong spring and cruises at record highs, but April loses Easter, the airport is still at its limit, border queues penalise American and British visitors and summer fares may rise with fuel prices.
How we got here: historical base 86 · regional growth +1 · cruises +1 · no airport growth −1 · border queues −1 · Easter outside April −3 · summer fares −2 · British confidence −1 = 80°
How we calculate it: the historical base is the average of overnight stays in Greater Lisbon and the Setúbal Peninsula in 2023–2025, with August = 100 (INE, monthly tourism statistics; four months estimated because data has not been published). This edition's signals adjust it by up to 10 degrees up or down. It is an editorial reading and the method is being refined with your feedback.
What moves the temperature: signals in this edition
↑ Warming pushes demand up
↓ Cooling pushes demand down
↔ Shifting moves demand to other dates
! Watch a risk to follow
↓ Cooling Lisbon hotels were the only ones in the country to lose occupancy, rate and RevPAR in summer
Jun – Sep 2026 · Lisbon · Hotels
In the AHP survey, Lisbon hotels had an occupancy of 82%, an average rate of €173 and a RevPAR of €142 between June and September, all below 2025; 57% of hoteliers had lower revenue. INE confirms it: in July, overnight stays in Greater Lisbon rose only 0.4% and RevPAR fell 7.3%, the only drop in the country. AHP points to the airport, demand that has levelled off and more rooms on sale.
Action → Revise your November and December forecast downwards and keep inventory for the last minute. Don't raise the base rate above inflation without confirmed demand, and favour value-added packages over discounts.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · restaurants. Sources: Observador (AHP) · INE (July)
! Watch Lisbon airport has stopped growing and only gains capacity from 2027
Oct 2026 – Jun 2027 · Lisbon airport
Humberto Delgado airport handled 10.21 million passengers in the third quarter (−0.2%) and has grown only 0.7% since January, against +7.1% in Porto. ANA wants to go from 38 to 40 movements per hour, with works planned for early 2027, but the environmental assessment is not yet complete. The new airport is only expected to open in 2035.
Action → Plan 2027 with the same number of flights as 2026. Grow your share (direct bookings, higher-spending markets) and the Portuguese and Spanish markets, which arrive by road and by train.
Affects: everyone. Sources: ECO · ECO (ANA) · Government
! Watch Pricier flights in winter and an easyJet strike before Christmas
Nov 2026 – Summer 2027 · Flights
Jet fuel costs more than double what it did a year ago. Ryanair is cutting flights between November and March and warns that fares may rise in summer 2027; easyJet is removing around 700,000 winter seats. easyJet cabin crew have a strike scheduled from 19 to 23 December in Lisbon, Porto and Faro: in the October strike around 370 flights were cancelled. As of 25 October we found no news that it had been called off.
Action → Check now which bookings for 19 to 23 December arrive with easyJet and offer those guests flexible dates or cancellation. With pricier tickets, focus on early bookings and the Iberian market.
Affects: everyone, especially short breaks. Sources: ECO · The Portugal News · Euronews · SNPVAC · CNN Portugal
↑ Warming Web Summit brings more than 70,000 attendees in November
9 – 12 Nov 2026 · Parque das Nações
Web Summit returns to the MEO Arena and FIL from 9 to 12 November, with more than 70,000 attendees expected. In 2025 it had a record 71,386 attendees from 157 countries, including 1,857 investors. It is Lisbon's biggest demand peak in November.
Action → Apply minimum stays and event rates from 8 to 13 November. Restaurants and transfers between Parque das Nações and downtown: reinforce your teams and accept group bookings.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · restaurants · transfers. Sources: Invest Qatar · AICEP (2025)
↔ Shifting Easter on 28 March: the season starts earlier and April is weaker
Mar – Apr 2027 · Calendar
In 2027, Holy Week runs from 21 to 28 March. In 2026, Easter was on 5 April, so much of that demand fell in April. March 2027 should come in above last year and April below, even if the year goes well.
Action → Reinforce staff and stock for 21 to 28 March. For April, plan promotions and don't compare only with April 2026.
Affects: everyone. Sources: Easter calendar 2026–2027
↔ Shifting Fewer Americans and British, more Brazil, Germany and Spain
Oct 2026 – Mar 2027 · Markets
Hoteliers expect fewer Portuguese and British guests in the autumn and more Germans, Spaniards and Brazilians. The US, Greater Lisbon's 1st market (19.3% of foreign overnight stays in the second quarter), keeps falling in hotels. In the UK, consumer confidence had its biggest drop since 2016 in October. TAP opens the Lisbon–São Luís do Maranhão route on 26 October, its 15th destination in Brazil.
Action → Adapt campaigns and content to Brazilian Portuguese, German and Spanish for the winter. For British guests, favour non-refundable rates and packages with clear value.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · restaurants · museums · tours. Sources: Observador (AHP) · INE (Q2) · NielsenIQ (GfK) · Kiosque da Aviação
↑ Warming Cruises at record highs: a record June at the Port of Lisbon
Mar – Jun 2027 · Lisbon riverside
The Port of Lisbon received 81,735 cruise passengers in June (+53%), its best June ever. In the first half there were 302,496 passengers (+5%). Growth came mainly from cruises that start or end in Lisbon, the ones that generate overnight stays before and after the trip.
Action → Hotels near the terminal and downtown: create pre- and post-cruise offers. Restaurants, museums and tours: match your staffing to the spring calendar of port calls.
Affects: hotels · restaurants · museums · tours. Sources: Observador (Lusa)
Smaller, but on the radar
Airport border queues: the new European Entry/Exit System (EES) has caused waits of several hours for non-Schengen tourists, and AHP says it did "a lot of damage" with American, British and Brazilian visitors. Observador (AHP) · Observador (PSP)
TAP: the Government chose Lufthansa, which pays around €1.2 billion for up to 49.9% (44.9% plus 5% reserved for employees). Lufthansa wants to strengthen the Lisbon hub, especially for Brazil, but the deal depends on Brussels and is only expected to close in 2028. DNoticias (Lusa) · ECO
The Metro's Circular Line should open in the first quarter of 2027, with new stations at Santos and Estrela. The extension of the Red Line to Alcântara has been on hold for two years. Observador
Lisbon has 37% fewer registered short-term rentals (11,704), mainly because 6,765 registrations without the mandatory insurance were cancelled. At least 4% of the "cancelled" ones were still accepting bookings. Observador (Lusa)
Sintra: tour coaches no longer enter the Volta do Duche and use the Lourel and Ramalhão car parks. Operators and guides should allow for the transfer in visit times. Observador (Lusa)
In the second quarter, the municipality of Lisbon recorded 4.4 million overnight stays (+1.7%). Greater Lisbon had the highest RevPAR in the country (€124.1), but was the only region where the average rate fell (−1.3%). INE
Restaurants: the 2027 Budget proposal raises the minimum wage to €970. The restaurant association AHRESP points out that the sector's margin is 3%. DN · ECO
From 7 to 10 September 2027, Lisbon hosts the European conference on international education (EAIE) at FIL, with more than 7,000 attendees at the last edition. Government
Tourism Strategy 2035 approved: a target of around 50 million international tourists and more than €53 billion in revenue, with the aim of taking more tourists to other regions. Observador (Lusa)
What to do now: advice by type of business
If you run accommodation (hotels, short-term rentals, guest houses)
Don't start a price war: volume is stable, what is falling is the rate. Use packages, minimum stays on strong dates and direct bookings to protect your margin.
Set minimum stays and event rates now for Web Summit (8 to 13 November), New Year's Eve and Holy Week (21 to 28 March).
Warn non-Schengen guests about border queues and offer early check-in or a transfer.
If you run a restaurant (restaurants, cafés, bars, wine shops)
During Web Summit week, reinforce your team in Parque das Nações and downtown and accept group bookings and company dinners.
With more Brazilians, Germans and Spaniards arriving, have your menu in English and Spanish and online bookings active on Google.
Review prices and staff rotas for 2027 before January: the minimum wage is expected to rise to €970.
If you run a tourism services business (tours, experiences, museums, transfers)
In Sintra, redo itineraries and visit times to allow for the transfer at the Lourel and Ramalhão car parks.
Cruises: follow the spring calendar of port calls and create products for passengers who start or end their cruise in Lisbon.
Museums and attractions: with fewer Americans, step up content and sales for Brazilians, Germans and Spaniards.
This edition's indicators
Passengers, Lisbon airport: 10.21 M (−0.2%) (Q3 2026)
Overnight stays, Greater Lisbon: 1.94 M (+0.4%) (Jul 2026)
RevPAR, Greater Lisbon: −7.3% (Jul 2026)
Occupancy and average rate, Lisbon hotels: 82% · €173, both down (Jun–Sep 2026)
Lisbon hoteliers with lower revenue than in 2025: 57% (summer 2026)
Cruise passengers, Port of Lisbon: 81,735 (+53%) (Jun 2026)
Sources: VINCI (via ECO), INE, AHP (via Observador), Port of Lisbon (via Lusa).
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Lisbon Tourism Thermometer, a Le Peach initiative. No. 1, prepared on 26 October 2026 based on public sources, cited in each signal. This is not financial advice.
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