Porto & North Tourism Thermometer No. 2: the airport speeds up, winter slows down and spring gains flights
Fortnightly tourism forecast · No. 2 · October 2026 · Porto, Douro, Minho and Trás-os-Montes. This edition was sent to subscribers on 27 October 2026. Subscribe for free to get it the day it comes out (the newsletter is sent in Portuguese).
Porto airport is growing three times faster than the country and the North keeps gaining ground, but hoteliers have fewer bookings for November and December and an easyJet strike is scheduled for 19 to 23 December. For spring, the new routes now have dates and Easter on 28 March brings the season forward. The temperature drops one degree in winter and holds steady in spring.
The temperature: the next 9 months in Porto and the North
Scale from 0 (cold) to 100 (hot).
57° · MILD Oct–Dec 2026 · next 3 months
Mild. The airport keeps growing and there are new Ryanair routes since 25 October, but bookings for November and December are below 2025 and the easyJet strike threatens the week before Christmas. Down 1 degree from No. 1.
How we got here: historical base 56 · growth in the North +3 · events +1 · winter routes +1 · fewer bookings and easyJet strike −2 · pricier flights −2 = 57°
45° · COLD Jan–Mar 2027 · 3 to 6 months
The coldest period of the year: January and February are the weakest months. March warms up with Holy Week (21 to 28 March), but Volotea suspends flights to France from January to mid-February and British confidence has fallen. Down 1 degree from No. 1.
How we got here: historical base 42 · growth in the North +3 · Easter in March +3 · pricier flights −2 · less France and British confidence −1 = 45°
72° · HOT Apr–Jun 2027 · 6 to 9 months
Hot. The new routes now have dates (Exeter on 30 March, Bournemouth on 31 March, Friedrichshafen on 1 April), Brussels Airlines and Delta are adding capacity to Porto and the Compostela Holy Year boosts the Portuguese Way. April loses Easter and British travellers are more cautious. Same as No. 1.
How we got here: historical base 70 · growth in the North +3 · new routes +3 · Holy Year +2 · Easter outside April −3 · summer fares −2 · British confidence −1 = 72°
How we calculate it: the historical base is the average of overnight stays in the North in 2023–2025, with August = 100 (INE, via Turismo de Portugal). This edition's signals adjust it by up to 10 degrees up or down. It is an editorial reading and the method is being refined with your feedback.
What moves the temperature: signals in this edition
↑ Warming pushes demand up
↔ Shifting moves demand to other dates
! Watch a risk to follow
↑ Warming Porto airport is growing three times faster than the country
Oct 2026 – Jun 2027 · Porto airport
From January to September, Francisco Sá Carneiro airport handled 13.9 million passengers, 7.1% more than in 2025. In the same period, ANA's network in Portugal grew 2.4% and Lisbon only 0.7%. The pace held in summer: +7.1% in the third quarter.
Action → Don't cut prices because of the Lisbon headlines: in Porto, air demand is still growing. Base your winter forecasts on the airport's pace.
Affects: everyone. Sources: VINCI Airports · ECO (Lisbon) · ECO (INE)
! Watch Hoteliers have fewer bookings for November and December
Nov – Dec 2026 · Portugal, including the North
In the AHP survey of 403 hotels (28 September to 11 October), 61% have fewer bookings for November than in 2025 and 53% for December, although they expect better average rates. Last-minute bookings are "here to stay". In the North, September was the best month of the summer and North Americans are now the 3rd market. The survey gives no booking figures for the North alone.
Action → A short order book in November is not, in itself, a drop in demand. Keep inventory for the last minute, use flexible rates and run campaigns for Spain, Germany and Brazil, the markets the sector expects to grow.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · restaurants. Sources: ECO (Lusa) · Observador
! Watch easyJet strike scheduled for the week before Christmas
19 – 23 Dec 2026 · Porto · Flights
The cabin crew union (SNPVAC) is keeping the easyJet strike from 19 to 23 December at the Porto, Lisbon and Faro bases. In the first strike, from 2 to 6 October, around 370 flights were cancelled, close to 80% of the operation. The union expects more flights to be affected in December. As of 25 October we found no news that the strike had been called off.
Action → Check now which bookings for 19 to 23 December arrive on easyJet flights and offer those guests flexible dates or cancellation. Push last-minute sales to the Iberian market, which arrives by car or train.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · transfers · tours. Sources: SNPVAC · CNN Portugal · Observador
↔ Shifting Winter at the airport: more Poland, Germany and Italy, less France
Nov 2026 – Mar 2027 · Porto · Flights
On 25 and 26 October Ryanair opened routes from Porto to Catania, Gdansk, Poznan and Hamburg, and TAP starts flying three times a week to Rio de Janeiro from 28 October. On the other hand, Volotea is cancelling Lyon and Rodez and suspending Nantes, Strasbourg, Brive, Clermont-Ferrand and Granada between early January and mid-February.
Action → In your November and December campaigns, focus on Poland, Germany, Italy and Brazil. Don't count on the regional French market between 5 January and 12 February.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · restaurants · tours. Sources: AeroRoutes (Ryanair) · AeroRoutes (Volotea) · AeroRoutes (TAP)
↑ Warming Summer 2027: the new routes now have dates and more airlines are adding Porto capacity
Apr – Jun 2027 · Porto · Flights
New since No. 1: Ryanair has published the start dates for Exeter (from 30 March), Bournemouth (31 March) and Friedrichshafen (1 April), with two flights a week each. The Lufthansa Group announced more Brussels Airlines flights to Porto in summer 2027 and Delta will restart the New York (JFK)–Porto flight earlier. For these two there are no frequencies or dates yet.
Action → Open Easter and April–June sales now for the UK, Germany, Belgium and the US, with early-booking rates.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · wine estates · tours. Sources: AeroRoutes · Lufthansa Group · Aviation A2Z
! Watch British consumer confidence has its biggest drop since 2016
Jan – Jun 2027 · British market
The UK consumer confidence index (GfK/NIQ) fell 11 points in October, to −24, the biggest drop since July 2016, the month after the Brexit referendum. The intention to make major purchases fell 14 points. Portuguese hoteliers already expect fewer British guests in the autumn, and Ryanair connects Porto to 10 destinations in the UK.
Action → For British guests, favour discounted non-refundable rates, short stays and packages with clear value. Watch the pace of British bookings for Easter before setting prices.
Affects: hotels · short-term rentals · golf · wine estates. Sources: NielsenIQ (GfK) · ECO (AHP)
Smaller, but on the radar
TAP privatisation: Lufthansa was chosen to buy up to 49.9%. According to the Government, Porto will be a "second base" with eight long-haul aircraft, but only after 2028, because Brussels has yet to approve the deal. Government
Douro: 1.14 million passengers on the river up to September (+0.6%). One-day cruises fell 1.2% and the port authority (APDL) speaks of a structural loss of demand in this segment. Notícias ao Minuto (Lusa)
Esposende will charge a tourist tax 30 days after publishing the regulation: €1.50 per night from October to March and €2 from April to September, up to five nights. Observador (Lusa)
Restaurants: the 2027 Budget proposal raises the minimum wage to €970. The restaurant association AHRESP points out that the sector's margin is 3% and proposes a €50 million fund and microcredit. DN · ECO
Portugal Events extended until 2028 and now managed by the regional tourism bodies. Conferences and corporate events can receive up to €50,000, depending on the overnight stays they generate. ECO
Short-term rentals: Porto had 583 new registrations in 2026, against 124 in Lisbon. The association ALPN is preparing the first White Paper on short-term rentals, coordinated by Manuel Caldeira Cabral. ECO · Observador
Porto Tech Hub Conference on 10 November at the Alfândega do Porto: midweek corporate demand. AICEP
Tourism Strategy 2035 approved: a target of around 50 million international tourists and more than €53 billion in revenue, with the aim of correcting regional imbalances. Observador (Lusa)
Boa Hotels is preparing the Kura resort in the Upper Douro, with 70 rooms and a spa, to open in 2029. ECO
What to do now: advice by type of business
If you run accommodation (hotels, short-term rentals, guest houses)
Keep inventory for the last minute in November and December: bookings are arriving later and later. Use flexible rates instead of lowering the base price.
Check which bookings for 19 to 23 December arrive with easyJet and contact those guests now with alternatives.
Open Easter (21 to 28 March) and April–June sales, with early-booking rates for the UK, Germany, Belgium and the US.
If you run a restaurant (restaurants, cafés, bars, wine shops)
Review your price list and 2027 staff rotas before January: the minimum wage is expected to rise by €50.
Strong dates until mid-November: Champions League at the Dragão (4 Nov), Porto Marathon (8 Nov) and Porto Tech Hub (10 Nov). Reinforce your team and accept group bookings.
With more Polish, German and Italian visitors arriving in winter, have your menu in English and online bookings active on Google.
If you run a tourism services business (tours, experiences, museums, transfers)
One-day Douro cruises have been losing demand for several years: review schedules and prices and combine them with train trips and wine estates before the 2027 season.
Event promoters and conference organisers: talk now to Turismo do Porto e Norte about Portugal Events for low-season events in 2027.
Prepare products for 2027 Holy Year pilgrims: luggage transfer, guides and transfers between Porto and the Minho.
This edition's indicators
Passengers, Porto airport: 13.9 M (+7.1%) (Jan–Sep 2026)
Overnight stays, North: 1.98 M (+4.5%) (Aug 2026)
RevPAR, North: €84.8 (+1.8%) (Aug 2026)
Passengers on the Douro river: 1,142,540 (+0.6%) (Jan–Sep 2026)
Hoteliers with fewer bookings for November: 61% (AHP survey, Oct 2026)
Consumer confidence, United Kingdom: −24 (−11 points) (Oct 2026)
Sources: VINCI Airports, INE (via Presstur), APDL (via Lusa), AHP (via ECO), NielsenIQ/GfK.
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Who makes the Thermometer
Le Peach has been working since 2021 with short-term rentals, hotels, hostels and tourism service providers in revenue management, website development and Google and AI campaigns. We help our clients set prices, fill their calendar and sell more through direct bookings. Our team has more than 15 years of experience in the market, including several international hotel chains and Booking.com in Portugal.
This daily work with bookings, prices and campaigns forces us to look at demand months ahead. The Thermometer shares part of this work with businesses in Porto and the North, with public sources and the reasoning always in view. Get to know Le Peach or write to us at hello@lepeach.co: the first conversation is free and with no commitment.
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Porto & North Tourism Thermometer, a Le Peach initiative. No. 2, prepared on 26 October 2026 based on public sources, cited in each signal. This is not financial advice.
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